Projected Changes in Water Balance Components of 11 Large River Basins during the 21st Century and Their Uncertainties

Autor:	Ye. M. Gusev, Olga N. Nasonova, M. K. Chebanova, E. E. Kovalev, G. V. Ayzel
Rok vydání:	2021
Předmět:	Water balance geography Hydrogeology geography.geographical_feature_category Climatology General Circulation Model Evapotranspiration Period (geology) Drainage basin Environmental science Climate change Precipitation Water Science and Technology
Zdroj:	Water Resources. 48:666-675
ISSN:	1608-344X 0097-8078
DOI:	10.1134/s0097807821050158
Popis:	Changes in the water balance components of 11 large-scale river basins due to possible climate change during the 21st century were simulated with the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections from five Global Climate Models (GCMs) under four RCP climatic scenarios. An analysis of 20 projections of changes in climatic precipitation, river runoff and evapotranspiration obtained for three climatic periods of the 21st century for each river basin made it possible to estimate their uncertainties resulted from application of different RCP scenarios and GCMs. On the average, the contribution of different GCMs to the uncertainty of the projected climatic values of the water balance components is nearly twice as large as the contribution of RCP scenarios in the first projected period and then slightly decreases with time.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::fc1f5f9dc75f30af8263c130056764fc https://doi.org/10.1134/s0097807821050158 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Full text from SpringerLink