Financial early‐warning models on cross‐holding groups
| Autor: | Hui‐Fun Yu, Ching‐Wen Lin, Pang‐Tien Lieu |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2008 |
| Předmět: |
Finance
Solvency Actuarial science Warning system business.industry Strategy and Management Corporate governance Logit Financial ratio Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering Computer Science Applications Management Information Systems Distress Variable (computer science) Industrial relations Economics Profitability index business |
| Zdroj: | Industrial Management & Data Systems. 108:1060-1080 |
| ISSN: | 0263-5577 |
| DOI: | 10.1108/02635570810904613 |
| Popis: | PurposeThis paper primarily uses statistical methods to establish financial early‐warning models that make it possible to predict, in advance, the probability of a company experiencing financial distress.Design/methodology/approachIn its empirical analysis, this is the first study that attempts to use financial ratios and non‐financial ratios as variables to analyze business groups, and the present study uses the (K‐S tests), and (M‐U tests) and logit regressions model.FindingsFinancial ratio variables remain the primary variables for predicting corporate financial distress. Upon examining the predictor variables for corporate financial distress at one, two, and three years prior to distress, it was found that financial ratio variables were the main ones at one and two years prior to distress, while at three years prior to distress there was one financial ratio variable and two ownership structure variables that showed significant differences. Financial structure, solvency, profitability, and cash flow indicators are the principal financial ratio variables. Ratios of director and supervisor ownership stakes after pledging of shares differed significantly between financially distressed and non‐distressed companies. Establishing independent directors and supervisors can lower the likelihood of financial distress.Research limitations/implicationsAs the time remaining before occurrence of financial distress grows shorter, test results show that the number of financial ratios with significant differences goes up. But the longer the time that remains before occurrence of financial distress, the more the financial ratios show non‐significant differences. That is why a number of scholars hold that the longer the period under study, the less explanatory power it has.Originality/valueThe mean contribution of this paper is that establishing independent directors and supervisors can lower the likelihood of financial distress. The paper is useful to researchers or practitioners who are focused on financial risk management and corporate governance implementation. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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