Estimates of uncertainty around Australian budget forecasts

Autor:	Susan Morrissey, Caroline Gibbons, Rhett Wilcox, Emily Pye, Luke Willard, John W. Clark, Joshua Pooley
Rok vydání:	2014
Předmět:	Actuarial science Real gross domestic product Econometrics Key (cryptography) Economics Point estimation Construct (philosophy) Government budget Confidence interval Treasury
Zdroj:	OECD Journal on Budgeting. 13:1-19
ISSN:	1681-2336
DOI:	10.1787/budget-13-5jxvd4xlns7j
Popis:	In this article, past forecast errors are used to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget. JEL classification numbers: E17, H68. Keywords: Confidence intervals, forecast errors, government budget, nominal GDP, real GDP, treasury, uncertainty.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::f866e8913f2e08ca95512595277bc41c https://doi.org/10.1787/budget-13-5jxvd4xlns7j Zobrazit plný text záznamu