Visualizing Long-Range Severe Thunderstorm Environment Guidance from CFSv2
| Autor: | Gregory W. Carbin, Michael K. Tippett, Harold E. Brooks, Samuel P. Lillo |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2016 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Severe weather Meteorology Supercell 010502 geochemistry & geophysics Grid 01 natural sciences Visualization Climatology Climate Forecast System Range (statistics) Thunderstorm Environmental science Predictability 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 97:1021-1031 |
| ISSN: | 1520-0477 0003-0007 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/bams-d-14-00136.1 |
| Popis: | Two novel approaches to extending the range of prediction for environments conducive to severe thunderstorm events are described. One approach charts Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSv2), run-to-run consistency of the areal extent of severe thunderstorm environments using grid counts of the supercell composite parameter (SCP). Visualization of these environments is charted for each 45-day CFSv2 run initialized at 0000 UTC. CFSv2 ensemble-mean forecast maps of SCP coverage over the contiguous United States are also produced for those forecasts meeting certain criteria for high-impact weather. The applicability of this approach to the severe weather prediction challenge is illustrated using CFSv2 output for a series of severe weather episodes occurring in March and April 2014. Another approach, possibly extending severe weather predictability from CFSv2, utilizes a run-cumulative time-averaging technique of SCP grid counts. This process is described and subjectively verified with severe weather events from early 2014. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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