Coal consumption in China: How to bend down the curve?
| Autor: | Zhe George Zhang, Ting Liang, Mengfan Du, Jian Chai, Ji Yu, Xiaojie Christine Sun |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
Consumption (economics)
Economics and Econometrics business.industry 020209 energy 05 social sciences 02 engineering and technology Energy consumption complex mixtures General Energy Annual percentage rate Inflection point Order (exchange) 0502 economics and business 0202 electrical engineering electronic engineering information engineering Econometrics Environmental science Coal 050207 economics China business Intensity (heat transfer) |
| Zdroj: | Energy Economics. 80:38-47 |
| ISSN: | 0140-9883 |
| Popis: | Noting the recent decline in the coal consumption in China, a variety of prior literature studies the peak of coal consumption and finds mixed results. This paper systematically studies the historical rules, the driving mechanism, as well as the future trend of coal consumption in China. First, through comparative analysis and breakpoint regression, we find that there are three consecutive inverted U-shapes between China's coal consumption and economic development from 1965 to 2016, and they reach inflection points in 1980, 1998, and 2013, respectively. Second, the LMDI decomposition analysis of coal consumption reveals that output effects and intensity effects jointly determine the overall trend of each inverted U, and structural effects play a key role in the formation of each inverted U-shaped inflection point. Finally, the forecast shows that coal consumption will decline at an average annual rate of 0.4% from 2017 to 2030, and by then it will be basically in a plateau period. There is a big gap between the consumption trend and the inverted U scenario. In order to bend the coal consumption curve downward and ensure that 2013 will become a long-term peak, the government should accelerate the optimization of the industrial structure and energy consumption structure, and improve coal consumption efficiency continuously through a mix of policies. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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