Convection-Permitting Regional Climate Simulations in the Arabian Gulf Region Using WRF Driven by Bias-Corrected GCM Data
| Autor: | Daniel F. Steinhoff, Xiaoqin Jing, Jing Yang, Yan Yin, Sourav Taraphdar, David Yates, Olivier Pauluis, Andrew Monaghan, Roy Rasmussen, Lulin Xue, Changhai Liu |
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| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Convection
Atmospheric Science 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Climatology Weather Research and Forecasting Model 0207 environmental engineering Environmental science GCM transcription factors 02 engineering and technology 020701 environmental engineering 01 natural sciences 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Climate. 33:7787-7815 |
| ISSN: | 1520-0442 0894-8755 |
| DOI: | 10.1175/jcli-d-20-0155.1 |
| Popis: | The regional climate of the Arabian Gulf region is modeled using a set of simulations based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, including a 30-yr benchmark simulation driven by reanalysis data, and two bias-corrected Community Earth System Model (CESM)-driven (BCD) WRF simulations for retrospective and future periods that both include 10-yr convection-permitting nested simulations. The modeled precipitation is cross-validated using Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission data, rain gauge data, and the baseline dataset from the benchmark simulation. The changes in near-surface temperature, precipitation, and ambient conditions are investigated using the BCD WRF simulations. The results show that the BCD WRF simulation well captures the precipitation distribution, the precipitation variability, and the thermodynamic properties. In a warmer climate under the RCP8.5 scenario around the year 2070, the near-surface temperature warms by ~3°C. Precipitation increases over the Arabian Gulf, and decreases over most of the continental area, particularly over the Zagros Mountains. The wet index decreases while the maximum dry spell increases in most areas of the model domain. The future changes in precipitation are determined by both the thermodynamics and dynamics. The thermodynamic impact, which is controlled by the warming and moistening, results in more precipitation over the ocean but not over the land. The dynamic impact, which is controlled by changes in the large-scale circulation, results in decrease in precipitation over mountains. The simulations presented in this study provide a unique dataset to study the regional climate in the Arabian Gulf region for both retrospective and future climates. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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