Forecasting 3G mobile subscription in China: A study based on stochastic frontier analysis and a Bass diffusion model
| Autor: | Seongcheol Kim, Jinyang Lim, Hongkyu Lee, Euehun Lee, Hongjai Rhee, Changi Nam |
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| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: |
Productive efficiency
Mainland China Economics and Econometrics business.industry Bass diffusion model Communication Library and Information Sciences Management Monitoring Policy and Law Management Information Systems Bass (sound) Stochastic frontier analysis Econometrics Economics Cellular network China Telecommunications business Mobile service Information Systems |
| Zdroj: | Telecommunications Policy. 36:858-871 |
| ISSN: | 0308-5961 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.telpol.2012.07.016 |
| Popis: | This paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription in mainland China while incorporating regional disparity. First, using stochastic frontier analysis, this paper tries to measure the relative market potential of 2G mobile service in 31 Chinese provinces. Second, this paper estimates diffusion parameters, including innovation coefficient, imitation coefficient and potential market size, of 31 provinces from 2G data. Then, this paper forecasts 3G mobile subscription using the original Bass model. In particular, this paper uses the market potential of each province in a modified Bass model in order to estimate the maximum level of 3G subscription. Finally, the paper presents meaningful implications for policy makers and mobile network operators in China. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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