The accuracy of plume trajectories forecast using the U.K. Meteorological Office operational forecasting models and their sensitivity to calculation schemes

Autor: R.H. Maryon, C.C. Heasman
Rok vydání: 1988
Předmět:
Zdroj: Atmospheric Environment (1967). 22:259-272
ISSN: 0004-6981
Popis: Studies into the various errors associated with long-range 950 mb trajectories computed using the Meteorological Office numerical weather prediction suite are presented. In the absence of observational data, trajectory error is measured using a verification computed from the model analysed and short-period forecast wind fields. While it is safest to assume that errors determined in this way are the minimum to be expected in relation to “true” trajectories, they nonetheless provide a useful diagnostic of model performance under different synoptic conditions and for trajectory releases at different stages of the forecast. Absolute and directional errors are analysed and the effect of altering the trajectory calculation schemes considered. The possible implications of the results for acid precipitation control strategies are discussed in some detail.
Databáze: OpenAIRE