An improved method to estimate the uncertainty of models describing the seasonal maturation ofVenturia inaequalisascospores

Autor:	Paweł Jankowski, Sylwester Masny
Rok vydání:	2014
Předmět:	Animal science biology Ascospore Botany Venturia inaequalis Improved method Plant Science biology.organism_classification Agronomy and Crop Science Confidence interval
Zdroj:	Canadian Journal of Plant Pathology. 36:456-469
ISSN:	1715-2992 0706-0661
DOI:	10.1080/07060661.2014.969314
Popis:	A simple method for reducing the uncertainty intervals of models describing the maturation of Venturia inaequalis (Cooke) Wint ascospores is described. The number of trapped ascospores related to the current accumulated degree days of the season, and the confidence interval predicted with the historical ascospore release datasets, were used to re-calculate the confidence interval for the ascospore proportion for the rest of the season. The historical uncertainty in ascospore proportion was described with logistic functions fitted to upper and lower confidence limits of the mean of fitted values for several years of ascospore release data. The re-calculated confidence interval was derived by the determination of the total number of ascospores that would be trapped during the season, if the current day cumulative release were at either the upper or lower confidence limit of the historical data. The method was examined by applying three models of ascospore maturation and using ascospore trap and weat...
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::f0b7a61a46bc95313f1c6bb428e63af4 https://doi.org/10.1080/07060661.2014.969314 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF Plný text ve formátu HTML
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