Error Evaluation of NCEP and LAHM Regional Model Daily Forecasts over Southern South America
| Autor: | A. Celeste Saulo, Claudia Marcela Campetella, Marcelo Enrique Seluchi, Lorena Judith Ferreira |
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| Rok vydání: | 2001 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Weather and Forecasting. 16:697-712 |
| ISSN: | 1520-0434 0882-8156 |
| Popis: | NCEP short-range operational forecast and Limited Area HIBU (Federal Hydrometeorological Institute and Belgrade University) Model (LAHM) regional model performance during a 2-month period over the southern part of South America are evaluated through the analysis of bias and rmse's. While spatial structure of errors could be only examined using gridded operational analyses as the “ground truth,” observed data have been used at two radiosonde stations to have an independent control of forecast and analysis quality. LAHM precipitation forecast error has been also determined using observed 24-h accumulated precipitation over a subregion of interest. Bias and rmse are, in general, lower for Medium-Range Forecast Model (MRF) 24-h forecasts than for the regional model, though MRF errors appear to be larger than those reported by other studies carried out over the whole Southern Hemisphere, suggesting the necessity to perform regional verification analysis whenever gridded analyses and/or forecasts are b... |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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