Predictive models of world conflict: accounting for regional and conflict-state differences

Autor:	Nicholas J Shallcross, Darryl K. Ahner
Rok vydání:	2019
Předmět:	Microeconomics State (polity) Modeling and Simulation media_common.quotation_subject Stability (learning theory) Economics Resource allocation Conflict management Conditional logistic regression Affect (psychology) Engineering (miscellaneous) media_common
Zdroj:	The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation: Applications, Methodology, Technology. 17:243-267
ISSN:	1557-380X 1548-5129
DOI:	10.1177/1548512919847532
Popis:	Developing nation-conflict forecasting models is of vital importance to international resource allocation strategies that affect regional and worldwide security and stability. A nation in conflict may evolve very differently to one that is not. Using a unique set of open-source data, a suite of region-specific models are developed that predict nation-state transitions into and out of violent conflict. Conflict transition predictor variables differ not only between the regions, but also within each region dependent on if a nation is identified as in conflict or not. Accurate modeling of complex regional environments is achieved with parsimonious and interpretable models. While we ensure the causal variables of the previous study are considered for inclusion in the models developed, this paper focuses on the ability to accurately predict conflict over individual independent variable analysis.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::ec3db7ce20234256c1af1d1e0c3ed795 https://doi.org/10.1177/1548512919847532 Zobrazit plný text záznamu