On the Evaluation of the Extremality Index EFI
| Autor: | I. A. Kulikova, D. B. Kiktev, E. N. Kruglova |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes
Atmospheric Science Index (economics) 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 010505 oceanography Computation Forecast skill Linear interpolation 01 natural sciences Histogram Air temperature Statistics Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics Intensity (heat transfer) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Water Science and Technology Statistical hypothesis testing Mathematics |
| Zdroj: | Russian Meteorology and Hydrology. 45:1-12 |
| ISSN: | 1934-8096 1068-3739 |
| Popis: | The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) calculations are performed using the ECMWF 2-m air temperature forecasts produced in the framework of the Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project. Four computation schemes are implemented using empirical and theoretical distributions of heat wave characteristics as well as the one-dimensional test statistics of histograms and linear interpolation formulas. Case studies (for different initial dates and regions) characterized by the significant air temperature anomalies in Northern Eurasia are performed using traditional forecast skill scores and the spatial verification methods to evaluate the efficiency of the proposed schemes for different threshold values of EFI. It is shown that the forecast quality can be considered satisfactory in most cases. The dependence of forecast skill on the intensity, spatial scales, and duration of temperature anomalies is revealed. Further studies should be carried out using larger samples based on several hydrodynamic models and the multimodel approach. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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