Forecast of the Pyroclastic Volume by Precursory Seismicity of Merapi Volcano
| Autor: | Makoto Shimomura, Nurnaning Aisyah, I Gusti Made Agung Nandaka, Masato Iguchi, Agus Budi-Santoso, Sulistiyani, Kuniaki Miyamoto, Haruhisa Nakamichi |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2019 |
| Předmět: |
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Pyroclastic rock Volcano tectonic earthquake Induced seismicity 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Volcano Volume (thermodynamics) Safety Risk Reliability and Quality Engineering (miscellaneous) Seismology Geology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Disaster Research. 14:51-60 |
| ISSN: | 1883-8030 1881-2473 |
| DOI: | 10.20965/jdr.2019.p0051 |
| Popis: | We propose a method to evaluate the potential volume of eruptive material using the seismic energy of volcanic earthquakes prior to eruptions of Merapi volcano. For this analysis, we used well-documented eruptions of Merapi volcano with pyroclastic flows (1994, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2010) and the rates and magnitudes of volcano-tectonic A-type, volcano-tectonic B-type, and multiphase earthquakes before each of the eruptions. Using the worldwide database presented by White and McCausland [1], we derived a log-linear formula that describes the upper limit of the potential volume of erupted material estimated from the cumulative seismic energy of distal volcano-tectonic earthquakes. The relationship between the volume of pyroclastic material and the cumulative seismic energy released in 1994, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2006, and 2010 at Merapi volcano is well-approximated by the empirical formula derived from worldwide data within an order of magnitude. It is possible to expand this to other volcanic eruptions with short (< 30 years) inter-eruptive intervals. The difference in the intruded and extruded volumes between intrusions and eruptions, and the selection of the time period for the cumulative energy calculation are problems that still need to be addressed. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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