Modelling impacts of climate change on global food security
Autor: | Terence P. Dawson, Tom M. Osborne, Anita H. Perryman |
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Rok vydání: | 2014 |
Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
Global and Planetary Change Extreme poverty Economic growth education.field_of_study Food security 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Poverty business.industry Natural resource economics Population Global warming 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences Millennium Development Goals 01 natural sciences Agriculture 040103 agronomy & agriculture Economics 0401 agriculture forestry and fisheries Food systems education business 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
Zdroj: | Climatic Change. 134:429-440 |
ISSN: | 1573-1480 0165-0009 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-014-1277-y |
Popis: | The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimate that nearly 900 million people on the planet are suffering from chronic hunger. This state of affairs led to the making of the United Nations Millennium Development Goals in 2000, having the first goal to “Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger” with a target to halve the proportion of people who suffer from hunger. However, projections of a rapidly growing population, coupled with global climate change, is expected to have significant negative impacts on food security. To investigate this prospect, a modelling framework was developed under the QUEST-GSI programme, which we have termed FEEDME (Food Estimation and Export for Diet and Malnutrition Evaluation). The model uses country-level Food Balance Sheets (FBS) to determine mean calories on a per-capita basis, and a coefficient of variation to account for the degree of inequality in access to food across national populations. Calorific values of individual food items in the FBS of countries were modified by revision of crop yields and population changes under the SRES A1B climate change and social-economic scenarios respectively for 2050, 2085 and 2100. Under a no-climate change scenario, based upon projected changes in population and agricultural land use only, results show that 31 % (2.5 billion people by 2050) of the global population is at risk of undernourishment if no adaptation or agricultural innovation is made in the intervening years. An additional 21 % (1.7 billion people) is at risk of undernourishment by 2050 when climate change is taken into account. However, the model does not account for future trends in technology, improved crop varieties or agricultural trade interventions, although it is clear that all of these adaptation strategies will need to be embraced on a global scale if society is to ensure adequate food supplies for a projected global population of greater than 9 billion people. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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