Biases in demographic modelling affect our understanding of recent divergence
| Autor: | Ann-Britt Florin, Paolo Momigliano, Juha Merilä |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
0106 biological sciences
0303 health sciences education.field_of_study Demographic history Population size Population Contrast (statistics) Reproductive isolation Biology 010603 evolutionary biology 01 natural sciences Divergence Gene flow 03 medical and health sciences Evolutionary biology education Selection (genetic algorithm) 030304 developmental biology |
| Popis: | Testing among competing demographic models of divergence has become an important component of evolutionary research in model and non-model organisms. However, the effect of unaccounted demographic events on model choice and parameter estimation remains largely unexplored. Using extensive simulations, we demonstrate that under realistic divergence scenarios, failure to account for population size (Ne) changes in daughter and ancestral populations leads to strong biases in divergence time estimates as well as model choice. We illustrate these issues reconstructing the recent demographic history of North Sea and Baltic Sea turbots (Schopthalmus maximus) by testing 16 Isolation with Migration (IM) and 16 Secondary Contact (SC) scenarios, modelling changes inNeas well as the effects of linked selection and barrier loci. Failure to account for changes inNeresulted in selecting SC models with long periods of isolation and divergence times preceding the formation of the Baltic Sea. In contrast, models accounting forNechanges suggest recent (Neon demographic inference. Tested models should aim at representing realistic divergence scenarios for the target taxa, and extreme caution should always be exercised when interpreting results of demographic modelling. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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