No Magic Number: an Examination of the Herd-Size Threshold in Pastoral Systems Using Agent-Based Modeling
| Autor: | Andrew J. Yoak, Abigail Buffington, Mark Moritz, Rebecca Garabed, Ian M. Hamilton |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Agent-based model
060101 anthropology 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Sociology and Political Science Ecology animal diseases 06 humanities and the arts Environmental Science (miscellaneous) 01 natural sciences Arts and Humanities (miscellaneous) Anthropology Scale (social sciences) Econometrics Herd Range (statistics) 0601 history and archaeology Limit (mathematics) 0105 earth and related environmental sciences Mathematics Demography |
| Zdroj: | Human Ecology. 45:525-532 |
| ISSN: | 1572-9915 0300-7839 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/s10745-017-9927-0 |
| Popis: | Pastoralists who depend on their herds for their livelihoods need a minimum number of animals to support their household. Due to the dynamics of herd growth, pastoralists may find themselves at times below that minimum number. Previous studies have shown that there is a herd-size threshold below which households are unlikely to escape poverty. We explore the concept of a herd-size threshold using an agent-based model to examine the role of scale and stochasticity in family herd dynamics. The model was parametrized with data from the literature. The results from the computer simulations show (1) that offtake rates significantly limit herd growth; and (2) that herd-size threshold is better understood as a range of probabilities. We discuss the methodological and conceptual advantages of using agent-based modeling to examine demographic dynamics, including the possibility of conducting multiple experiments in silico to examine the dynamics of herd growth. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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