Assessment of Evolution of Mountain Lakes and Risks of Glacier Lake Outbursts in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat Imagery and Glacier Bed Topography Modelling
| Autor: | Horst Machguth, Maria Shahgedanova, Igor Severskiy, Vassiliy Kapitsa, Akhmetkal Medeu |
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| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Hydrology
geography geography.geographical_feature_category 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences 0208 environmental biotechnology Central asia Overdeepening Glacier 02 engineering and technology Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Hazard management 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Ice thickness Abundance (ecology) Geology 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| DOI: | 10.5194/nhess-2017-134 |
| Popis: | Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. In 2002 and 2014, 599 lakes with a combined area of 16.26 ± 0.85 km2 and 636 lakes with a combined area of 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively were identified. The number of lakes and their combined area increased by 6.2 % and 6.6 % representing growth rates of 0.51 % a−1 and 0.55 % a−1. Contact lakes exhibited the largest growth. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The GlabTop2 model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. 513 overdeepening in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of modelled overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the modelled overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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