| Popis: |
BackgroundGeneral practitioners (GPs), as one important human resource for health, is facing a supply shortage in China. The diversity of individual decision-making behaviors of GPs and medical students increases the difficulty of supply forecasting. Agent-based simulation, as a bottom-up approach, has the potential to address this challenge.MethodsAn agent-based model was developed to forecast the supply of GPs in Shanghai, China. Based on the theory of working life cycle, we analyzed the life cycle of GPs and developed the framework. Publicly available data were used to parameterize the model. Several scenarios were conducted to test hypotheses and examine intervention stratigies. NetLogo 6.1.0 was used for model implemtation. ResultsThe model was run over a nearly 20-year time span from 2016 to 2035 in Shanghai. Simulated results showed that GPs in Shanghai will rise from 8,000 to 15,375 during this period. Sensitivity analysis showed that parameters of the health system had a greater impact on the results than those of the education system. ConclusionsReliable forecasting of the supply and demand is a prerequisite for solving the shortage of GPs. Comprehensive intervention strategies are needed to address the supply shortage. For example, as indiciated by our study, regions should increase their attractiveness to GPs and retain them more effectively, instead of just increasing the number of medical students enrolled. |
