| Popis: |
This study developed plural gravity models and their application method in order to increase the accuracy of trip distribution estimation. The developed method initially involves utilizing the coefficient of determination () to set the target level. Afterwards, the gravity model is created, and if the gravity model`s coefficient of determination is satisfactory in regards to the target level, the model creation is complete and future trip distribution estimation is calculated. If the coefficient of determination is not on par with the target level, the zone pair with the largest standardized residual is removed from the model until the target level is obtained. In respect to the model, the removed zone pairs are divided into positive(+) and negative(-) sides. In each of these sides, gravity models are made until the target level is reached. If there are no more zone pairs to remove, the model making process concludes, and future trip distribution estimation is calculated. The newly developed plural gravity model and application method was adopted for 42 zone pairs as a case study. The existing method of utilizing only one gravity model exhibited a coefficient of determination value () of 51.3%, however, the newly developed method produced three gravity models, and exhibited a coefficient of determination value () of over 90%. Also, the accuracy of the future trip distribution estimation was found to be higher than the existing method. |
