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This study analyses the economic and social policies in the Egyptian economy during the period 1952-1970 and their impact on the pattern of consumption, trade and development. The econometric method used is that of multiple regression. This technique is also combined with input-output techniques in order to obtain a macro-growth model. This model is used to analyse the major changes in Egypt's in situational and structural framework that resulted from the economic and social policies pursued during the import-substitution stage. Chapter 1 discusses the concepts of economic development and growth, social change, economic policy goals and income distribution. It also outlines an analytical framework for distinguishing the various stages of growth and for identifying the characteristic pattern of trade and development underlying each of these stages. This is followed, in Chapters 2 and 3, by an analysis of the changes brought about by the agrarian reforms, particularly their impact on the distribution of agricultural income. Industrial and fiscal policies, the role of the public sector in controlling and allocating investment, and the sectoral pattern of employment and labour supply are discussed in Chapters 4 and 5. An evaluation of the changes in pattern of consumption and an econometric estimation of private consumption and government consumption expenditures is attempted in Chapter 6, while the specification and estimation of the structural equations of the macro-growth model of import-substitution strategy are discussed in Chapter 7. The pattern of import-substitution growth and the structural changes associated with it are analysed in Chapter 8. In Chapter 9 the model is used to diagnose past growth and then to analyse alternative future policy designs. The final chapter outlines the main conclusions of the study and puts forward certain policy recommendations. |
