Financial Professionals' Overconfidence: Is It Experience, Function, or Attitude?
| Autor: | Oliver Gloede, Lukas Menkhoff |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2011 |
| Předmět: |
Finance
Actuarial science Better than average business.industry media_common.quotation_subject Sample (statistics) Peer group Self rating Investment management Accounting Foreign exchange Function (engineering) business Psychology General Economics Econometrics and Finance media_common Overconfidence effect |
| Zdroj: | European Financial Management. 20:236-269 |
| ISSN: | 1354-7798 |
| DOI: | 10.1111/j.1468-036x.2011.00636.x |
| Popis: | This paper examines financial professionals’ overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals’ self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a moderate degree, including many cases of underconfidence. In analysing this, we find that working experience is accompanied by less overconfidence. Function is also related to less overconfidence, such as being a fund manager and using fundamental analysis. The same effect is found for the attitude to herd, whereas recent success appears with more overconfident professionals. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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