Rapid Adjustments Cause Weak Surface Temperature Response to Increased Black Carbon Concentrations
| Autor: | Christopher J. Smith, Thomas Richardson, Viatcheslav Kharin, Dirk Jan Leo Oliviè, Bjørn Hallvard Samset, Øivind Hodnebrog, Trond Iversen, Gunnar Myhre, Camilla Weum Stjern, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Matthew Kasoar, Alf Kirkevåg, Apostolos Voulgarakis, Gregory Faluvegi, Drew Shindell, Dilshad Shawki, Olivier Boucher, Timothy Andrews, Piers M. Forster, Toshihiko Takemura |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Atmospheric Science
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences Cloud cover Global warming Climate change Forcing (mathematics) Carbon black Radiative forcing 010502 geochemistry & geophysics 01 natural sciences Geophysics Space and Planetary Science Climatology Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous) Environmental science Precipitation Temperature response 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 122:11-11,481 |
| ISSN: | 2169-897X |
| Popis: | We investigate the climate response to increased concentrations of black carbon (BC), as part of the Precipitation Driver Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP). A tenfold increase in BC is simulated by nine global coupled‐climate models, producing a model median effective radiative forcing of 0.82 (ranging from 0.41 to 2.91) W m⁻², and a warming of 0.67 (0.16 to 1.66) K globally and 1.24 (0.26 to 4.31) K in the Arctic. A strong positive instantaneous radiative forcing (median of 2.10 W m⁻² based on five of the models) is countered by negative rapid adjustments (−0.64 W m⁻² for the same five models), which dampen the total surface temperature signal. Unlike other drivers of climate change, the response of temperature and cloud profiles to the BC forcing is dominated by rapid adjustments. Low‐level cloud amounts increase for all models, while higher‐level clouds are diminished. The rapid temperature response is particularly strong above 400 hPa, where increased atmospheric stabilization and reduced cloud cover contrast the response pattern of the other drivers. In conclusion, we find that this substantial increase in BC concentrations does have considerable impacts on important aspects of the climate system. However, some of these effects tend to offset one another, leaving a relatively small median global warming of 0.47 K per W m⁻²—about 20% lower than the response to a doubling of CO₂. Translating the tenfold increase in BC to the present‐day impact of anthropogenic BC (given the emissions used in this work) would leave a warming of merely 0.07 K. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Plný text