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This paper uses a scenario analysis system - Range-ASSESS - to examine the potential for gains and losses of soil carbon in the Australian rangelands as affected by grazing and climate. The analysis involves a factorial examination of the effect of stocking rates and all possible 5-year historical climates between 1889 and 1999. The analysis also looks at the sensitivity of results to the method of calculation of safe carrying capacity, and to the thresholds used to calculate grazing and dryness indices that drive transitions in state and transition models. The analysis showed that different vegetation zones produced different responses to changes in stocking depending upon the spatial distribution of dryness index, nature of carbon state and transition model, rules governing transitions, and relative significance of soil carbon. At a stocking density equivalent to 100% of 1997 levels, the soil carbon loss from rangelands was about 400 Mt C in 40% of the 5-year periods using a sensitive growth deviation threshold to determine dryness index. If a less sensitive threshold was used, potential loss was reduced to about 200 Mt C. If the grazing pressure threshold for a grazing index of four is adjusted to a more generous level, then potential losses in the dry periods are substantially reduced. The analysis is intended to be indicative of a likely approximate outcome rather than a quantitative measure of system response. The results indicate that the interpretation of the effect of the drought-grazing pressure interaction on perennial plant survival, and consequent organic carbon input to soils, is a major source of uncertainty and a critical area for more experimental measurement. |
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