Cost of illness of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan: A time trend analysis and future projections

Autor: Shigeru Fujita, Tomohiro Hirao, Takefumi Kitazawa, Kanako Seto, Yinghui Wu, Kunichika Matsumoto, Tomonori Hasegawa
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: Hepatology Research. 48:176-183
ISSN: 1386-6346
Popis: Aim Liver cirrhosis is a preneoplastic condition to hepatocellular carcinoma that is an important worldwide public health concern, and its economic burden has been estimated in some countries. The objective of this study was to estimate and predict the cost of illness (COI) associated with non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan. Methods Using a COI method on available data from government statistics, we estimated the economic burden in 3-year intervals from 1996–2014. We then predicted the COI in 3-year intervals from 2017–2029 using fixed and variable model estimation. With fixed model estimation, only estimated future population was used as a variable. Variable model estimation considered the time trends of health-related indicators throughout the past 18 years. Results The estimated COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis was 208.1 billion yen in 2014. The COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis had a downward trend from 1996 to 2014. The predicted future COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis was 144.3–210.5, 106.0–213.8, 88.6–213.4, 76.7–215.5, and 66.4–214.3 billion yen in 2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, and 2029, respectively. Conclusions The results of this study suggest that the COI of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis in Japan has steadily decreased and will continue to decrease in future. Treatment of HCV patients with newly introduced technologies has high therapeutic effectiveness, which will affect the future prevalence of non-alcoholic liver cirrhosis. Because the results of this study were based on present conditions, it should be noted when interpreting the results of long-term estimation.
Databáze: OpenAIRE
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