The impact of seasonal flood peak dependence on annual maxima design quantiles
| Autor: | Ewa Bogdanowicz, Witold G. Strupczewski, Sisay Debele |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category Flood frequency analysis Flood myth 0208 environmental biotechnology Drainage basin 02 engineering and technology Bivariate analysis Annual maxima 01 natural sciences 020801 environmental engineering Copula (probability theory) 010104 statistics & probability Statistics 0101 mathematics Maxima Water Science and Technology Mathematics Quantile |
| Zdroj: | Hydrological Sciences Journal. 62:1603-1617 |
| ISSN: | 2150-3435 0262-6667 |
| DOI: | 10.1080/02626667.2017.1328558 |
| Popis: | If the maximum annual peak flow series are a mixture of summer and winter flows, a seasonal approach to flood frequency analysis is necessary. While considering seasonal maxima as mutually independent events, the annual maxima distribution is defined as the product of seasonal distributions. However, if the independency assumption does not hold, a bivariate approach with dependent margins should be applied, i.e. the copula approach. The impact of dependency on design quantiles is investigated here in the context of the Frechet-Hoeffding inequality defining copula bounds and the definition of dependency. The results of the two approaches are compared using six catchments in the San River basin, where in four cases the dependency of seasonal maxima has been identified as positive significant and no strong dominance of any one season is observed. The product model leads to higher estimates of design quantiles than do models where the dependency is taken into account and, therefore, is safe.EDITOR R. ... |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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