| Autor: |
Matthys Kroon, Elton Dorkin, Emanuel M. Dominic, Heinrich Volmink, Wim Delva, Roxanne Beauclair, Rachid Ouifki |
| Rok vydání: |
2021 |
| Předmět: |
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| Popis: |
IntroductionFrom the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, epidemiological models have been used in a number of ways to aid governments and organizations in efficient planning of resources and decision making. These models have elucidated important epidemiological transmission parameters, in addition to making short-term projections.MethodsWe constructed a compartmental mathematical model for the transmission, detection and prevention of SARS-CoV-2 infections for regions where Anglo American has mining operations. We fitted the model to publicly available data and used it to make short-term projections. Finally, we evaluated how the model performed by comparing short-term projections to actual confirmed cases, retrospectively.FindingsThe average forecast errors for four-week-ahead projections ranged between 1% and 8% in all the countries and regions considered in this study. All but one region had more than 75% of the true values falling within the range of four-week-ahead projections. The quality of the projections improved with time as expected due to increased historical data.ConclusionOur model produced four-week forecasts with a sufficiently high level of accuracy to guide operational and strategic planning for business continuity and COVID-19 responses in Anglo American mining sites. |
| Databáze: |
OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
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