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Background and Purpose. Attrition in professional physical therapist education is problematic for students, educational programs, and society. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of different admissions variables to predict successful completion of physical therapist education in a timely manner. Subjects. All students in a professional physical therapist program who matriculated between 1998 and 2002 (N = 198) were studied. Methods. Subjects were allocated to 1 of 2 groups, based on whether or not they graduated with the class in which they entered. For each subject in the Attrition group, the reason for attrition was identified. Predictors of attrition were either cognitive (undergraduate cumulative grade point average [GPA], Graduate Record Examinations [GRE®] - Math, GRE-Verbal), collegiate (undergraduate institution quality as determined by the institution's average SAT® I composite scores of entering students), or demographic (age, race, gender) in nature. Predictors of attrition were identified using logistic regression. Results. Most students experienced attrition for academic reasons. While attrition overall was not predicted by the regression model that included all of the cognitive, collegiate, and demographic attributes (P = .32), a second regression model including data from only students who experienced attrition for academic reasons was able to predict attrition. Using the second regression model, undergraduate GPA and the alma mater's average SAT for entering students in this professional physical therapist program were able to independently predict attrition for academic reasons (P = .04). Discussion and Conclusion. Undergraduate institution quality and undergraduate GPA were identified for the first time as significant, independent predictors of attrition in physical therapist education. Key Words: Professional physical therapist education, Cognitive predictors, Undergraduate institution quality, Attrition. INTRODUCTION Attrition in higher education is problematic at many levels. Individuals who are not successful in completing their courses of study suffer financial consequences' and risk personal embarrassment. Institutions lose tuition revenue, an effect especially significant to educational organizations that are heavily dependent on tuition dollars, such as small private colleges and universities. Attrition in physical therapist education programs has additional further-reaching societal consequences, especially where workforce shortages periodically exist.2-5 Currently, there is essentially full employment of physical therapists.6 A growing role for physical therapists in wellness and prevention and as autonomous practitioners, however, may augment the future need for therapists. Furthermore, the increasing number of elderly citizens' and their disproportionate use of health care services8 indicate an increased demand for therapists in the next few decades,5 and, therefore, the potential for a shortage of physical therapists. Despite the potential deleterious consequences of attrition in professional physical therapist education, little research has focused on this issue. Most studies on success in physical therapist education have examined the quality of academic performance, using measures such as grade point average (GPA), clinical performance measures, and licensure examination scores, and have overlooked the issue of attrition, upon which successful academic performance is contingent.9,16 In fact, in many studies, students who experienced attrition were completely excluded from the data.9-16 Most studies of attrition in health care education have focused on the fields of medicine17-19 and nursing,2-5 educational processes that differ in significant ways from physical therapist education in areas including program length, financial demands, and students' academic preparation. An examination of the literature reveals highly disparate rates of attrition among these educational groups. … |
