Verification of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model when Forecasting Daily Surface Conditions in Southern Alberta

Autor: Gerhard W. Reuter, Clark Pennelly
Rok vydání: 2017
Předmět:
Zdroj: Atmosphere-Ocean. 55:31-41
ISSN: 1480-9214
0705-5900
DOI: 10.1080/07055900.2017.1282345
Popis: The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was compared with daily surface observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model in forecasting surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction. Daily forecasts for the following two days were produced at nine locations across southern Alberta, Canada. Model output was verified using station observations to determine the differences in forecast accuracy for each season.Although there were seasonal differences in the WRF model, the summer season forecasts generally had the greatest accuracy, determined by the lowest root mean square errors, whereas the winter season forecasts were the least accurate. The WRF model generally produced skillful forecasts throughout the year although with a smaller diurnal temperature range than observed. The WRF model forecast the prevailing wind direction more accurately than other directions, but it tended to slightly overestimate precipitation amounts. A sensitivity analysis consisting of ...
Databáze: OpenAIRE
Popis
Abstrakt:The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was compared with daily surface observations to verify the accuracy of the WRF model in forecasting surface temperature, pressure, precipitation, wind speed, and direction. Daily forecasts for the following two days were produced at nine locations across southern Alberta, Canada. Model output was verified using station observations to determine the differences in forecast accuracy for each season.Although there were seasonal differences in the WRF model, the summer season forecasts generally had the greatest accuracy, determined by the lowest root mean square errors, whereas the winter season forecasts were the least accurate. The WRF model generally produced skillful forecasts throughout the year although with a smaller diurnal temperature range than observed. The WRF model forecast the prevailing wind direction more accurately than other directions, but it tended to slightly overestimate precipitation amounts. A sensitivity analysis consisting of ...
ISSN:14809214
07055900
DOI:10.1080/07055900.2017.1282345