Estimating future industrial emissions of hazardous air pollutants in the United States using the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS)
| Autor: | Kaixin Huang, Matthew J. Eckelman |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2021 |
| Předmět: |
Pollutant
Pollution Economics and Econometrics National Energy Modeling System business.industry media_common.quotation_subject Fossil fuel 0211 other engineering and technologies Environmental engineering 02 engineering and technology 010501 environmental sciences 01 natural sciences Hazardous waste Criteria air contaminants Greenhouse gas Environmental science 021108 energy business Waste Management and Disposal Air quality index 0105 earth and related environmental sciences media_common |
| Zdroj: | Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 169:105465 |
| ISSN: | 0921-3449 |
| DOI: | 10.1016/j.resconrec.2021.105465 |
| Popis: | Retrospective studies such as the National Air Toxics Assessment have focused on modeling hazardous air pollutant (HAP) concentrations and exposures in the near past; however, future projections of HAPs emissions are relatively unexplored compared to those for greenhouse gases or criteria pollutants, and HAPs are typically not included in energy systems optimization or integrated assessment modeling. In this study, we demonstrate a method that harnesses sector-based emissions data from the US environmentally extended input-output (USEEIO) model and scenario results from the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to project HAPs emissions from industrial sectors in United States, disaggregated to 9 regions. The results show that most HAPs have higher projected emissions in 2050 compared to the baseline year when assuming constant emissions intensities per unit of economic output, but lower emissions when trend values for pollution control and technology improvements are incorporated. Regional and temporal patterns are diverse among the 237 HAPs considered. Using formaldehyde as a prominent example, the oil and gas sector is the largest national contributor (49%-77%) to future formaldehyde emissions across scenarios. Overall, this method enables projections of industrial HAPs emissions, aligned with official NEMS scenarios, that can be used in assessments of future air quality and potential health impacts from HAPs. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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