Evaluation of Accuracy of Predictions based on Prescriptions Taken in Advance via Ordering System and Benefits of This for Inventory Management
| Autor: | Makoto Kuromatsu, Noriko Kuroda, Yutaka Nishikawa, Sachiko Tomii, Mutsuaki Ueda, Takashi Kajita, Tohru Ohtori, Takeyasu Hayashiguchi, Eitaro Nakatsuka, Kazumi Yamaguchi, Kanji Tomogane |
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| Rok vydání: | 2010 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | Iryo Yakugaku (Japanese Journal of Pharmaceutical Health Care and Sciences). 36:227-231 |
| ISSN: | 1882-1499 1346-342X |
| DOI: | 10.5649/jjphcs.36.227 |
| Popis: | The possibility of predicting future in-hospital medical product usage from usage trends was investigated based on previously provided prescription data saved in the ordering system.We compared quantities of medical products used based on previously provided prescription data saved in the system and dispensary data,and evaluated the predictive accuracy of such previously provided data and the benefits of predictions for inventory management.There was a strong correlation between predicted first-day quantities,whose prediction included prescription data prior to dispensing for that day,and dispensed quantities (R2=0.989)when the slope was 1.083.The predictive accuracy was high for item detection and payment prediction,at 93.5% and 90.5%,respectively.When using previously provided prescription data for the second day onwards,whose prescriptions had yet to be dispensed,item detection and payment prediction rates were 78.7% and 64.1%,respectively,on the second day ; 63.5% and 42.1% on the third day ; and,52.0% and 28.6% on the fourth day,showing improved predictive accuracy for dispensing days closer to the time of prediction.Correction of inventory ordering in consideration of predictions based on prior ordering data resulted in a decrease in frequency of being out of stock.These findings demonstrate that the use of previously provided data enables rapid and accurate assessment of trends in medical products likely to be used in-hospital.Using such data in this way would also be beneficial to medical product inventory management. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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