Understanding changes and trends in projected hydroclimatic indices in selected Norwegian and Polish catchments
Autor: | Renata J. Romanowicz, Jaroslaw J. Napiorkowski, Hadush K. Meresa |
---|---|
Rok vydání: | 2017 |
Předmět: |
geography
geography.geographical_feature_category Flood myth 0208 environmental biotechnology Drainage basin Climate change 02 engineering and technology Norwegian language.human_language 020801 environmental engineering Trend analysis Geophysics Harmonic regression Climatology language Environmental science Climate model Precipitation |
Zdroj: | Acta Geophysica. 65:829-848 |
ISSN: | 1895-7455 1895-6572 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s11600-017-0062-5 |
Popis: | The aim of the study is to investigate trends in selected hydroclimatic indices using novel and conventional tools, for future climate projections in the twenty-first century. Selected quasi-natural Norwegian and Polish catchments are used as a case study. The projected flows are provided by GR4J rainfall-runoff conceptual model, coupled with an ensemble of climate model projections from EURO-CORDEX initiative. The trends are analysed using conventional Mann–Kendall and modified Mann–Kendall statistical approaches, a time–frequency approach based on discrete wavelet transform (DWT) and the dynamic harmonic regression (DHR) method. Of all methods applied the DHR gives the most conservative trend estimates. Trends depend on the specific hydroclimatic character and flow regime of the catchment. The results confirmed that in catchments with a rainfall-driven flood regime, an increase in the amount of precipitation is followed by increased flows, with strong seasonal changes, whereas, in catchments with a snow-driven flood regime, despite an increase of mean annual flow, decrease in annual maximum flow is observed. Generally, positive trend is the most dominant in all catchments studied and the methods were consistent in detection of trend except in seasonal trend test. |
Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
Externí odkaz: |