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Return period analysis to assess the long-term impact of climate change on olive sector in Andalusia, Spain - results from the Med-Gold projectM. Gratsea1, K. V. Varotsos1, J. López-Nevado2, S. López-Feria2, C. Giannakopoulos11 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development, National Observatory of Athens, Greece2 DCOOP Sociedad Cooperativa, Andalusia, Spain AbstractMed-Gold project, aims to develop climate services for olive, grape and durum wheat crops, which are the hallmarks of the Mediterranean food system. The generated climate related information at different timescales will be exploited by the end-users for operational decision-making. The objective of this study is to employ the return period method for communicating the effect of climate change on the olive crops in the long-term in Andalusia, which is one of the most important olive growing areas worldwide. Therefore, return periods of bad years in terms of olive yield and olive fly risk are being calculated for the reference period 1971-2000 and for the near (2031-2060) and distant future (2071-2100) under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios using an ensemble of five bias-corrected Regional Climate Models. The identification of the bad years - and the corresponding thresholds - is based on observational data from five monitoring stations in Andalusia (Malaga, Granada, Sevilla, Cordoba and Jaen) and the role of certain meteorological parameters (precipitation, temperature, relative humidity) is investigated. The results indicate an overall tendency for increased occurrence probability of bad years in terms of yield due to future higher temperatures and decreased precipitation. The impact is more pronounced towards the end of the century and under the RCP8.5 future emission scenario.This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 776467. |
