| Popis: |
We propose a theory of endogenous polarization where a political elite strategically initiates conflicts between groups of people to polarize society and strengthen the elite's power. In the model, interactions between two groups of people result in stochastic gains, which are taxed by the elite. Outcomes of past interactions are observed and used to update the common belief about the expected gains. High expected gains from interactions correspond to low polarization and increase people's incentives to oust the rent-extracting elite. The elite responds with a divide and rule strategy: initiating a conflict to interrupt the interactions and prevent the updating of beliefs. An initial increase in polarization due to the conflict can lead to a persistent high-polarization conflict trap without productive interactions. In an extension, we discuss policy interventions that could counter the polarizing strategies of the elite. |
