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Hydroelectric power resembles other lines in electric power, particularly nuclear, in being at present under close public management, which cannot be ignored in plans for future development. On the other hand, today’s hydroelectric power is part of electrical power supplies and supports the economy, and it has technical and economic factors that can advance or retard its progress. What does one expect from Russian power engineering in the near future? Firstly, we must have some data on the electrical power supplies at present. The installed power of stations in Russia in 1999 was about 214 million kW, which was 1 million kW larger than in 1990. In 1999, the total electrical energy production was 847 billion kWh, including HES 161.4, nuclear stations 129, and balance thermal power stations. The structure of the station power is as follows: thermal power stations 148.7 million kW (70%), HES 44.1 million kW (20%), and nuclear stations 21.3 million kW (10%). The fuel structure in thermal stations in recent years has been as follows: gas 59.5-64%, coal 25.3-29.1%, and fuel oil 7-13.2%. In 1999, the gas consumption was 64% of the total volume of fuel required for electricity. This is about 130 billion m of gas. Energy consumption has always been an objective indicator of a country’s economic state. In 1990, Russia produced 1082 billion kWh of electrical energy, but by 1998, it had fallen to 827 billion kWh, but on the other hand, in 1999, the production in Russia rose to 847 billion kWh. This is evidence for a recovery in the economy and allows one to forecast the course of that rise and the increase in electrical power demand. A very important aspect of electricity economics is the cost of fuel. Up to the present, the government has regulated the prices for gas and the tariffs for electricity, which shows that market relationships still do not apply to electricity, and consequently there is a gross disproportion over the costs of individual forms of fuel on the internal market and large differences between domestic and international prices for the most valuable forms of fuel. In 1999, the price for coal was 530 rubles/tfe, while that for gas was 340 rubles/tfe, and that for oil 925 rubles/tfe. The average tariff for electrical power has been kept at the level of 26.5 kopeks/kWh or about 1 cent. In terms of United States dollars, the price of gas on the internal market at present is 13.6 dollars/tfe, whereas in Western Europe, it is 65-75 dollars/tfe. The price of gas on the domestic market is at present lower by a factor 1.5 than that of coal, although the technological, ecological, and other features of that fuel are much better than those of coal. There is clearly a paradox in the relation between the prices for these forms of fuel. That situation cannot persist for a long period. The price of gas within the country will rise, with the limit set by the price on the international market. The same tendencies apply to the prices for other forms of fuel; the only difference is that the price of gas will rise more rapidly. It is obvious that there will be a rise in the cost of making electricity at thermal stations primarily because of the increase in the fuel component. That is the economic aspect of the problem. However, recent attempts to overcome this economic paradox have led to a technical problem that is no less acute. This very inefficient gas use on the domestic market has forced restrictions on the use of gas in power stations on a scale constituting a danger to electricity supply, particularly in the European part of the country. It must be recognized that this is an objective tendency. However, converting many large thermal power stations to use coal instead of gas requires much time and major capital investment. One should not forget that one needs simultaneously to overcome some major ecological problems associated with the conversion. That is the price of the gas pause adopted as the basis for the development of electricity at the start of the 1970s. Finally, a consequence of the past decade has been the extensive ageing of all power plant, which needs upgrading and renewal. That problem exists at all types of station, and its resolution requires large capital investment, which very much complicates development. Russian power engineering is thus in a difficult state at the start of the new century. What should we expect of it? There has been a reduction in the rate of fall in demand for electricity in recent years, and a substantial rise in consumption in 1999 over the previous year, and the continuation of that tendency in the first half of 2000 |
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