Semi-Structural Forecasting of UK Inflation Based on the Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve
| Autor: | Fabio Rumler, Johanna Posch |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2014 |
| Předmět: |
Inflation
Marginal cost Series (mathematics) Short run Strategy and Management media_common.quotation_subject Management Science and Operations Research Computer Science Applications Modeling and Simulation New Keynesian economics Econometrics Economics Statistics Probability and Uncertainty Time series Phillips curve media_common Economic interpretation |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Forecasting. 34:145-162 |
| ISSN: | 0277-6693 |
| DOI: | 10.1002/for.2319 |
| Popis: | We develop a semi-structural model for forecasting inflation in the UK in which the New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) is augmented with a time series model for marginal cost. By combining structural and time series elements we hope to reap the benefits of both approaches, namely the relatively better forecasting performance of time series models in the short run and a theory-consistent economic interpretation of the forecast coming from the structural model. In our model we consider the hybrid version of the NKPC and use an open-economy measure of marginal cost. The results suggest that our semi-structural model performs better than a random-walk forecast and most of the competing models (conventional time series models and strictly structural models) only in the short run (one quarter ahead) but it is outperformed by some of the competing models at medium and long forecast horizons (four and eight quarters ahead). In addition, the open-economy specification of our semi-structural model delivers more accurate forecasts than its closed-economy alternative at all horizons. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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