Sovereign Risk Matters: The Effects of Endogenous Default Risk on the Volatility of Interest Rate Spreads

Autor:	Sergio de Ferra, Enrico Mallucci
Rok vydání:	2020
Předmět:	Consumption (economics) Stochastic volatility Sovereign default media_common.quotation_subject Economics Econometrics Balance of trade Volatility (finance) Emerging markets Credit risk Interest rate media_common
Zdroj:	SSRN Electronic Journal.
ISSN:	1556-5068
DOI:	10.2139/ssrn.3699114
Popis:	Emerging market interest rate spreads display substantial time-varying volatility. We show that a baseline model with endogenous sovereign default risk can account for such volatility, even in the absence of shocks to the second moments of the exogenous stochastic variables. In particular, the model features a key non-linearity that allows it to replicate the stochastic volatility of interest rate spreads and its comovement with other economic variables. Volatility correlates positively with the level of the spreads and the trade balance and negatively with output and consumption.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
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