'General, I Have Fought Just as Many Nuclear Wars as You Have': Forecasts, Future Scenarios, and the Politics of Armageddon
| Autor: | Micki Kaufman, Taunton Paine, Giulia Ferrini, Will Leonard, Nicholas Standish, Lydia Walker, Matthew Connelly, Harrison Monsky, Matt Fay, Ryan Musto |
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| Rok vydání: | 2012 |
| Předmět: | |
| Zdroj: | The American Historical Review. 117:1431-1460 |
| ISSN: | 1937-5239 0002-8762 |
| DOI: | 10.1093/ahr/117.5.1431 |
| Popis: | HISTORIANS HAVE LONG ARGUED THAT ignoring the past or misapplying its lessons can lead to fatal mistakes. But governments have shown far more interest in the promise of prevision. The United States, in particular, has made a massive investment in intelligence estimates, future scenarios, simulations, and technology forecasts since World War II. The sums expended on official history and archives are trifling in comparison.1 In some ways, this is an old story. Political leaders sought the advice of oracles and soothsayers long before historians arrived on the scene. What has changed is the tremendous growth in bureaucratic structures that are specifically designed to provide foresight. There has also been a qualitative transformation in the sophistication of forecasting and modeling. The development of official efforts to anticipate future events and trends was a trend in itself, one that has become worldwide |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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