The Shape of Sunspot Cycles Described by Monthly Sunspot Areas

Autor:	Zhao Hai-juan, Zhan La-sheng, Hu Liuming, Guo Li
Rok vydání:	2005
Předmět:	Physics Solar minimum Sunspot Meteorology Space and Planetary Science Solar cycle 16 Climatology Astronomy and Astrophysics Solar cycle 11 Function (mathematics) Long-term prediction
Zdroj:	Solar Physics. 232:143-158
ISSN:	1573-093X 0038-0938
Popis:	In this paper, we used the same four-parameter function as Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994) proposed and studied the temporal behavior of sunspot cycles 12-22. We used the monthly averages Of Sunspot areas and their 13-point smoothed data. Our results show the following. (1) The four-parameter function may reduce to a function of only two parameters. (2) As a cycle progresses, the two-parameter function can be accurately determined after 4-4.5 years from the start of the cycle. A good prediction can be made for the timing and size of the Sunspot maximum and for the behavior of the remaining 5-10 years of the cycle. (3) The solar activity in the remaining and forthcoming years of cycle 23 is predicted. (4) The smoothed monthly Sunspot areas are more suitable to be employed for prediction at the maximum and the descending period of a cycle, whereas at the early period of a cycle the (un-smoothed) monthly data are more suitable.
Databáze:	OpenAIRE
Externí odkaz:	https://explore.openaire.eu/search/publication?articleId=doi_________::d130a3f0da2baa1dc368f9844c1847bc https://doi.org/10.1007/s11207-005-2370-1 Zobrazit plný text záznamu Plný text ve formátu PDF