| Popis: |
Russia invaded Ukraine on the 24th of February 2022. To the surprise of many Ukraine did not surrender. Instead, they put up an impressive defense and dealt Russia a number of military defeats, causing the war to go until the end of 2022, and most likely for longer. European and Western support has been pivotal for the Ukrainians, both in the form of sanctions on Russia, arms deliveries, expertise, economic support, and aid relief. In addition, Europe has seen an influx of refugees both from Ukraine and Russia. There are several reasons for why Western countries support Ukraine; geopolitical, a defense for democracy and liberal rights, moral, and to support a a world order where larger countries do not invade and annex smaller countries. Yet, European support for Ukraine comes with a cost for European voters, who partly are funding Ukraine through their taxes and have experienced inflation, particularly on energy prices, as a result of the war. The Russian regime knows this, and they have tried to dent support for Ukraine in Europe by using (the absence) of gas exports as a political weapon to put pressure on Europeans and scare them. This is, for example, evident from a propaganda video published by Gazprom which shows Europeans freezing throughout the winter. Thus, Europeans are facing a trade-off; will they keep supporting Ukraine even if it comes with a cost? And if so, what factors and reasons explain their continued support for Ukraine? This is what we will explore in this project using a survey choice experiment. We argue that when the war is presented as an existential battle between democracy and autocracy, European voters will be more likely to support Ukraine. Furthermore, we expect that there will be no negative effect on the support for Ukraine, when we remind voters of the costs they are facing, since this reminds them of the sacrifices they have made in support of Ukraine and, if anything, galvanize support for Ukraine. Overall, and based on our expectations, we argue that Putin and his subordinates will have little success in swaying Western support for Ukraine with their current strategy. On the contrary, European voters will only be more likely to support Ukraine when the battle is framed as an existential battle between democracy and autocracy. |
