| Popis: |
This abstract the first results of a Phd ongoing work on the impact of climate change and land use land cover on the hydrological dams in a large, transboundary, West-African watershed: The Senegal River Watershed.Freshwater - a fragile resource - is essential for life, development, and the environment. Flowing through Guinea, Mali, Senegal and Mauritania, the Senegal River (fig 1) is a strategic water resource for the West-Africa region and riparian countries development. The Senegal River's water management in time and space is possible thanks to the existing and planned hydroelectric dams built along the river. These water developments aim to meet the growing water, food and energy needs of the member states (Senegal, Mali, Guinea, Mauritania). Access to energy and food security will be a significant challenge in the future due to population growth and climate change. In the coming decades, climate change and changes in land use and land cover will further increase the constraints on the already scarce water resources in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa.This study is part of the Nexus "Climate change, LULC change, Water, Energy" in the Senegal River basin. The objective is to assess the impact of climate change and land use/land cover on water resources in the upper Senegal River basin and associated socio-economic activities (energy, agriculture, flood support, flood control) for the time horizon 2050. This study aims to develop simulations of streamflow and water storage under assumptions of LULC and climate change for integrated management of dams in a multiple-use context.Our methodology is based on A multi-model approach including a climate model, a land use/land cover forecasting model (land change modeler) for modelling and elaborating future land use/land cover maps (2050) based on past trends (1986, 2006 and 2020) of LULC map, a hydrological model (Swim) for modelling runoff and projecting flows to 2050, and a reservoir management model (Simulsen) for simulating dam management.In this presentation or poster, we will present the elaboration of future LULC maps based on past trends and the reanalyzes of climatic data. |
