| Popis: |
Net present values of milk income over feed and semen costs were estimated for 102,198, and 47 US Holstein AI sires with semen available in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela in early 1987. Also evaluated were four US bulls imported to Venezuela for local semen processing. Net present values of semen were compared with those obtained by US producers. Data were PD of bulls and milk and semen prices in each country. Alternative scenarios were for conception rates of 30 and 50%; daughter milk response to US sire PD milk of .30 to .60 for Colombia and Venezuela, and .40, .55, and .75 for Mexico; and real interest rates of 7 and 10%. Average economic returns from investing in US semen in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela were negative for most scenarios. Opportunities for positive returns were greater in Mexico than in Colombia and Venezuela. Zero to 56.9 to 82%, and 2 to 85% of sires in Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela had positive returns for the scenarios considered, Imported semen should be used judiciously in situations of high conception rate and environmental opportunity for high milk response to sire selection. Lower profitability in these countries than in the US was mainly from less daughter response in milk than from economic effects (lower milk prices, higher semen cost, and real interest rate). Locally processed semen from imported bulls increased the number of profitable choices in Venezuela. |
