Forecasting olive (Olea europaea L.) production using aerobiological and meteorological variables in Tétouan (NW Morocco)
| Autor: | Asmae Boullayali, Lamiaa Achmakh, Asmae Janati, Hassan Bouziane, Lakbira Elhassani |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2020 |
| Předmět: |
Coefficient of determination
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences biology Intensive farming Crop yield Immunology Regression analysis Plant Science 010501 environmental sciences medicine.disease_cause biology.organism_classification 01 natural sciences Olive trees Crop Agronomy Olea Pollen medicine Immunology and Allergy Environmental science 0105 earth and related environmental sciences |
| Zdroj: | Aerobiologia. 36:749-759 |
| ISSN: | 1573-3025 0393-5965 |
| Popis: | Airborne pollen and meteorological-related variables have proved to be a good indicator of flowering, olive fruit production and to predict harvest of upcoming crop, thus enabling efficient management and marketing strategies. This study describes the first forecasting models of the olive fruit production based on pre-peak airborne annual pollen integral (APIn) from Olea europaea L. and meteorological data prior and during the flowering and ripening olive trees in Tetouan (NW of Morocco) over a period of 11 years (2008–2018). Aerobiological sampling was conducted using Burkard volumetric Hirst trap. The data were analyzed by multiple regression analysis. Several forecasting models developed were validated using data of 2018 (not included in the models) and compared with real olive crop data obtained from the Provincial Directions of Agriculture of Tetouan. The main factors influencing the final olive crop were the rainfall registered prior to flowering (March) and during fruit growing and minimum temperatures in July and June. The most accurate forecast models for the 2018 harvest showed the highest coefficient of determination (R2 = 0.98; p |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
| Externí odkaz: |
|
Full text from SpringerLink