| Popis: |
The design and evaluation of strategic projects can be very challenging tasks, as future changes in the design of these projects can be too expensive later on. The traditional engineering techniques for project evaluation do not take uncertainty into account, while there is a range of uncertainty resources in reality. In addition, they ignore the role of system operators throughout the project life time, whereas the intelligence of managers and decision-makers should not be underestimated. Hence, a four-step evaluation process based on simulation is proposed to solve the problem with uncertainty and flexibility, also known as real options. One of the challenges in Iran's healthcare system is a shortage of 70 to 80 thousands hospital beds due to the lack of government funding and investment. Study shows that it takes 35 to 40 years to meet the hospital needs while future can be quite uncertain and making the evaluation process challenging. To tackle this issue, there is a need to evaluate healthcare projects as accurate as possible by considering uncertainty and flexibility. For an example of how to deal with this challenge, to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed methodology, the design evaluation of a central hospital is investigated in this study. |
