Exploring the Causal Relationship Among Trout Production, Price and Subsidy in Turkey

Autor: Mehmet Aydoğan, ORHAN GUNDUZ
Rok vydání: 2022
Předmět:
Zdroj: Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam Üniversitesi Tarım ve Doğa Dergisi.
ISSN: 2619-9149
DOI: 10.18016/ksutarimdoga.vi.1132332
Popis: Although there have been trout subsidies in Turkey for many years, the fact that trout production has been below expectations, especially in recent years, has led to the need to investigate the effects of the subsidies. Thus, the present study was conducted to estimate the long-run relationship among trout production, producer price, and subsidy in Turkey. The time-series data covering 1984-2016 regarding trout production, sales prices, and subsidies were used. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality Analysis were utilized to estimate the time-dependent causality relationship among the variables. The VECM results, which estimate the existence of a long-run relationship among the variables, revealed that 46.8% of the long-run deviations in the price and subsidy variables will be corrected in the next period. The analysis results indicated that sales prices affect trout production negatively in the long term. Granger causality analysis indicated that the prior period values of production and price variables were the reason for the changes in the subsidy variable. In the short-term VECM model, it was revealed that changes in production and prices positively affect the subsidy. A percent increase in production and price increased the subsidy amount by 1.79 and 3.14 percent, respectively. To increase trout production, the current subsidy policy should be revised to improve the infrastructure and capacity of aquaculture farms. Subsidies for the fishery sector should also be increased in real terms to achieve their objectives.
Databáze: OpenAIRE