| Popis: |
We formulated a deterministic model for simulation of zika virus (ZIKV) infections. This cooperates with WHO serious alert on February 1st, 2016 to contain ZIKV epidemic in the world, Brazil being the most hit. Accordingly, we have taken Brazil records on ZIKV cases as an example to justify the model. According to the model, simulations suggests that by 2020, ZIKV infections is no longer a threat in this country. In our analytic analysis we have included some brief simulations as specific cases. Finally, model simulation is all about Brazil. In this model, besides a disease free equilibrium (DFE) point being globally stable, analysis of local DFE has two sets of eigenvalues, leading two different qualitative behavior. This follows due to variation in some parameters. In each of these two sets, none has backward bifurcation. That is the disease is controllable when R_0 1 the disease free is unstable. In the analytic analysis of either qualitative behavior, we have associated brief simulation. Only analytic analysis of endemic equilibrium has not been fully developed. We have considered Brazil ZIKV cases from January 2016 onward to verify the model plus having some predictions about ZIKV infections to around 2020. The basic reproduction (R_0) has been estimated as R_0=0.1922 1. |
