Hydrological response to climate change of the Brahmaputra basin using CMIP5 general circulation model ensemble
| Autor: | Sujit Kumar Bala, Mutasim Billah, A. K. M. Saiful Islam, Khaled Mohammed, Md. Alfi Hasan, Md. Golam Rabbani Fahad, G. M. Tarekul Islam, Supria Paul |
|---|---|
| Rok vydání: | 2017 |
| Předmět: |
Hydrology
Atmospheric Science Global and Planetary Change Flood myth 0208 environmental biotechnology Flow (psychology) Climate change 02 engineering and technology Management Monitoring Policy and Law Structural basin Monsoon 020801 environmental engineering Climatology Environmental science Climate model Ecosystem Satellite Water Science and Technology |
| Zdroj: | Journal of Water and Climate Change. 9:434-448 |
| ISSN: | 2408-9354 2040-2244 |
| DOI: | 10.2166/wcc.2017.076 |
| Popis: | The Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna river system carries the world's third-largest fresh water discharge and Brahmaputra alone carries about 67% of the total annual flow of Bangladesh. Climate change will be expected to alter the hydrological cycles and the flow regime of these basins. Assessment of the fresh water availability of the Brahmaputra Basin in the future under climate change condition is crucial for both society and the ecosystem. SWAT, a semi-distributed physically based hydrological model, has been applied to investigate hydrological response of the basin. However, it is a challenging task to calibrate and validate models over this ungauged and poor data basin. A model derived by using gridded rainfall data from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and temperature data from reanalysis product ERA-Interim provides acceptable calibration and validation. Using the SWAT-CUP with SUFI-2 algorithm, sensitivity analysis of model parameters was examined. A calibrated model was derived using new climate change projection data from the multi-model ensemble CMIP5 Project over the South Asia CORDEX domain. The uncertainty of predicting monsoon flow is less than that of pre-monsoon flow. Most of the regional climate models (RCMs) show an increasing tendency of the discharge of Brahmaputra River at Bahadurabad station during monsoon, when flood usually occurs in Bangladesh. |
| Databáze: | OpenAIRE |
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