| Popis: |
This paper evaluates the impacts of various scenarios proposed in the context of the WTO Doha Round agricultural negotiations and a new scenario that considers differential treatment for developing countries. The objective of this paper is to contribute to find the desired consensus among WTO members to facilitate trade and avoid trade wars. We used the Agricultural Trade Policy Simulation Model (ATPSM) to measure impacts and use the ADAMS model to measure the equity of the various scenarios. We considered seven negotiating scenarios (1) Uruguay Round Agreement, (2) C4 country proposal, (3) EU proposal, (4) USA proposal, (6) our proposal and (7) full liberalization of trade. The results showed that our proposal increases the cotton producers’ price by 10.8%, better than the C4 countries proposal (9.0%) and USA proposals (6.1%). Our proposal for agricultural agreements increases the world price (8.1%), the consumer’s price (7.4%) and the volume of exports (2.3%), certainly to a lesser degree than that of the C4 countries proposal but more than the USA proposal. In terms of the equity criterion, it is as favorable as the other scenarios compared to the status quo of the Uruguay Round. Our proposal presents the elements for a compromise to conclude the Doha Round, with benefits for developing countries and the introduction of a new mechanism of international solidarity. |
