| Popis: |
This paper investigates the relationship between foreign trade and the investments in logistics sector and its reflections in urban space in Mersin case. Turkey has adapted open economic growth policy after 1980, hence a rapid increase in exports and imports has been observed (Yeldan, 2016). The city of Mersin, host a major port and industrial infrastructure, is one of the most affected cities by the open economy policies in Turkey. This paper provides a statistical and spatial analysis of the effects of foreign trade on land use changes in Mersin city. One of the most important indicators of foreign trade is the amount of cargo handled at the port. Granger’s (1988) bidirectional causality model and the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) test which used multivariable application of the model in the time series, are employed to explain the relationship between port volume and the size of the warehouse area in the city. Freight volume in Mersin Port increased by 480% in 1980-2017 period. In the same period, the warehouse area in the city increased by 616%. The findings can be used in estimating the demand for warehouse space increase in the future as a result of foreign trade performance. The causality relationship between these three variables (export, import and warehouse area) was statistically measured by applying the Granger bidirectional causality model and the Toda & Yamamoto (1995) causality test. According to the 3-year delayed bidirectional causality test among the variables the following results are obtained; - The increase in the amount of discharged cargo is the 3 year delayed Granger reason for the increase in warehouse capacity in the city. Every 1-million-ton increase in the goods discharged in the port results in an increase of 34,163 m2 in warehouse built up area. There is a bi-directional causality relationship between loading and warehouse built up area. Each 1-million-ton increase in loaded cargo in the port caused an increase of 43,843 m2 in the warehouse area. - The discharge at the port is an explanatory variable of the loading and a there is only a one-way causality relation. The number of different functions and qualities of depots in the city is increasing due to the increase in port handling volume. The master plan, which is the most important tool to control the spatial development of the city, was approved in 1996. Even though the plan proposed warehouse development on the eastern corridor, lots of investments are observed in the areas that are not foreseen by the plan because they have not provided sufficient space for the logistic activities in the last 21 years. The corridor-planned landfills in the east of the city showed a scattered development due to lack of space. Warehouse and truck park investment decisions of the developers are influenced by the volume of both imports and exports. It can be said that the effect of transit trade activities may also be high but there is not enough data in this direction. This paper provides an analytical process to understand the relation between foreign trade and the demand for warehouse space. Urban planning can be an effective tool |
