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The National Bridge Inventory bridge inspection system ranks the condition of bridge components on a scale of zero to nine. The resulting condition ratings represent an important element considered in deciding measures for bridge maintenance, repair, and rehabilitation. Thus, forecasting future condition ratings well is critical to reliable planning for these activities and estimating the costs. The Illinois Department of Transportation currently has deterministic models for this purpose. This study’s objective is to review the current models using condition rating histories gathered from 1980 to 2020 in Illinois for the following bridge components: deck, superstructure, substructure, culvert, and deck beam. The results show the current Illinois Department of Transportation models are inadequate in forecasting condition ratings, producing overestimates of the transition times between two condition rating levels for these components / systems, except for the deck beam, which is underestimated. It is recommended that the mean transition times found in this study from condition rating histories are used to replace the current models as a short-term solution. Further research is recommended to develop probabilistic models as a long-term solution to address observed significant variation or uncertainty in condition rating and transition times between condition rating levels. |
