| Popis: |
In September 2009 the City of Calgary Council approved Plan It Calgary, which proposes policies that focus on the development of resilient neighborhoods through the intensification and diversification of urban activities around transit stations and routes. More intensive development and mixed land use encourage non-motorized trips and reinforce comfortable, safe and walkable streets. The development of high-density, mixed-use and transit- and pedestrian-oriented communities has the potential to generate trips with shorter destinations, which are expected to result in a higher share of active travel modes, such as biking and walking. Thus, there is a growing need to estimate the impact of land-use development scenarios and transportation policies on bicycle and pedestrian demand to predict future non-motorized trip volumes and adequately design the related infrastructure. This study calibrates multiple linear and Poisson regression models to estimate non-motorized travel demand based on GIS, transportation data and road characteristics. The empirical models that have been developed in this research can be used to assess the impacts of urban design and built environments, such as developing high-density and mix-land-use areas, and building complete streets in the middle ring communities of the City of Calgary in influencing the demand for active travel modes. The developed models show the benefits of improved pedestrian infrastructure, such as improved network connectivity and increases in the length of pedestrian pathways, as well as the integration of transit and walking modes and transit and bicycle modes in encouraging more non-motorized travel demand. The method employed herein is a straightforward statistical analysis method, and the needed data are relatively easy to access. |
